John has written papers on risk and cost and the use of probabilistic cost-risk estimating with co-authors Alfred Moergeli (Switzerland) and Philip Sander (Austria). The papers have been presented and published at the International Tunneling Association Conference in Dubrovnik in May and at the Rapid Excavation & Tunneling Conference in New Orleans in June.
Probabilistic cost-risk estimating delivers a rich source of information regarding base cost, risk and opportunity costs, risk specifics and leads to better budgeting for owners, better cost and risk strategies for owners and contractors and explicit risk management plans.
This builds on risk research by John over the last 20 years and the development of the Washington State Department of Transportation’s “Cost Estimate Validation Process” (CEVP) developed by John with the Department and implemented by several U.S. Federal and State Agencies.
The 2015 ITA/RETC paper can be downloaded from this website (see HOME page).