John continues to collaborate with colleagues at the University of Munich regarding advanced contracting and delivery methods for complex urban infrastructure programs. This builds on work over the last 25 years and previous papers on this topic.

The concept is to define a structured process to determine and quantify what is most important to owners, designers, contractors and other stakeholders and to use these priorities to define and determine the appropriate contractual structure, considering these factors and optimal outcomes. This research may be elevated to a comprehensive thesis at the University of Munich.

John has been asked by colleagues and an infrastructure association to research and prepare a paper and presentation on risk management for complex infrastructure programs. The content will address the following themes:

1. Risk management and response; current applications, processes, concerns and opportunities. Benefits of advanced risk management including more proactive approaches to budgeting and cost control. Address the potential impact of “black swan” and “grey swan” events and strategies to contain them.
2. Risk related to contractual practices, contractual systems, risk-sharing and a risk baseline approach
3. Risk related to megaproject development, implementation, construction and delivery with reference to the complexity of very large, long-term megaprojects and potential innovative management systems.

The format will outline the specific theme (history and context), the associated process(s), their development and current status plus examples of application to selected projects (case histories). References to specific projects and their experience, or approach, related to the three themes above, will be made with details including strategies, planning, environmental, design, contracting and construction considerations as well as political, industry and local stakeholder involvement. A guiding principle will be how these themes, circumstances, or strategies advance the interests of the world-wide infrastructure community.

It is expected that the paper and presentation will be available in the 2nd quarter of 2025

John has continued to advance contracting, delivery, risk and risk-based cost estimating (CEVP & RIAAT) including: Development of a process to assess the very low probability of collapse, after dewatering, of the 1940 Delaware Tunnel, a major water supply to New York city; CEVP process updates as applied to a major airport program in Lima Peru; input text for an eBook to train US cost estimators in risk-based cost estimating.

He authored an article on procurement of TBMs, written as an update to an paper presented at the ITA Conference in Vienna, 1997 (which is still valid). That article addressed “Owner Responsibilities in the Selection of Tunnel Boring Machines” including the implications of performance vs. prescriptive contracting and was used as input to international presentations on this subject 1998 – 2003.

Links to the 2020 and 2021 articles and a related 2011 article on this topic are:
[ TBM Procurement and Contractual Processes, 2021 ]
[ TBM Procurement, Risk and Technology Advancement, 2020 ]
[ Alternative Contracting, 2011 ]

John continues to work on advancing our understanding of risk management, reported in papers at Conferences in 2015 (ITA Dubrovnik and RETC New Orleans) and to be presented in 2016 at the ITA WTC2016 Conference in San Francisco.
Continue reading Advanced Risk Management, 2015-16 →